While the water on the Luxembourgish Moselle does not freeze frequently, thanks to the constant movement due to the current, the water inside of the Schwebsange marina is subject to freezing in particularly cold periods of the year.
The formation of an ice layer on the surface in the marina is not only enabled by extended periods of low air temperatures but also possibly by other factors like water temperature in the main river, wind speed and direction as well as water flow in the river.
I plan to make observations during the 2023-24 winter and to try to correlate the ice formations with some of the factors mentioned above and to deduce if there is a good correlation that can support predictions in the future.
My hypotesis is that the main factors influencing the formation of ice in the marina are the following:
- Water temperature in the river
- Average air temperature of the last 24 hours and previous week
- Average air temperature of the last 2 hours
- Wind speed
- Water flow in the river
For simplicity, I will start assessing the first three factors only
| Water temperature measured in the main river flow in Perl | Avg air temp 24 hrs | Avg air temp 2 hrs | Effect | Last observed |
| 6,6 °C | -0,7 °C | -2,5 °C | No sign of ice at all (note: avg temp in the last 7 days: +1,5°C) | 2.12.23 11:00 |
| 4,0 °C | -2,6 °C | -3,6 °C | Start of very thin ice formation in <1% of the marina, only where no current and no wind. LIRC pontoon and all boat path to river completely ice-free (note: avg temp in the last 7 days: -2,0°C) | 14.1.24 16:40 |
| 3,6°C | -2,7°C | -0,2°C | A thin layer of ice is taking more space in the marina and around the LIRC pontoon but not tightly around (note: avg temp in the last 7 days: -1,5°C) see here | 18.1.24 14:00 |
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